A mere two months prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery berated him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source for the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the touchline reaction proved to be much more joyous. As the England international swept in his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, the boss tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves just three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
It remains a particularly tough proposition to address. History, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the wins have piled up.
Per Opta, twice all season have Villa registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a club that have put together a ten-match winning streak, they seem curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with a couple of clinical strikes. It happened against Leeds, it occurred in London, and once more when facing Manchester United.
His opener came from an exquisite effort, curled just inside the upright from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of his first capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, the opponents registered more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the biggest rival Villa will encounter in the near future. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to blasting his shots into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent might become the player he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, nobody expected this. Nobody thought the team would sit in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These spells are rare in football and must be appreciated.
